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Last 4 Months Moving Average

Dear All,

I am stuck up with the concept Moving average . I have explained my problem in the attached workbook. Please have a look on it and get back to me with some solutions.

Your help is greatly appreciated.

Thanks
santhosha
 

Attachments

  • Test.xlsx
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Hi,
You are trying to calculate a 4-month simple moving average on % completed vs. scheduled. Cell F4 is the right way according to me.
I don't know what to call G4. It is just SMA(Completed)/SMA(Scheduled).
A weighted moving average is like a simple moving average but with different weights assigned to different data points - one variation could be to assigned more weights to data points that are closer to the current period in your case - if you calculate [ 4 x Apr + 3 x Mar + 2 x Feb + 1 x Jan ] / 10 - that's a weighted moving average.
 
Hi Santhosh,

I think value of cell F4 is Moving Average and G4 is Weighted Average. If you Include one month now your moving average will shift to FEB - MAY, but your weighted average will include Jan also.

Regards,
 
Hi Santhosh ,

I think there is some confusion over here. The terms moving average and weighted average refer to 2 totally different concepts.

Moving average is always over a period of time ; the term moving implies that the window of time which is used to average the values keeps moving ; thus you can have a 12 month average over the period Jan , Feb , Mar ,..., Nov , Dec. This is not a moving average , since it is an average over 12 months. With the same 12 months of data , you can have a moving average with a window of 3 months ; in this case , you will have the following averages :

1. Jan , Feb , Mar
2. Feb , Mar , Apr
3. Mar , Apr , May
.
.
.
10. Oct , Nov , Dec

Thus , with the same 12 months of data , you can have 10 averages.

If you now change the window to 4 months , you will have 9 averages.

Weighted average is in no way connected with time ; it is connected with the relationship between 2 or more values , where some values are more important or weighty than others. A straightforward example is when the winner of a competition is decided using votes from judges as well as votes from an audience ; suppose the number of judges is 5 while the audience numbers 100.

If each vote of a judge carries the same weightage as the vote of a member of the audience , then effectively the judges will be outnumbered by the audience , since they can at the most pitch in with 5 votes.

Now , suppose a weightage of 10 is given to each judge's vote ; effectively , the 5 judges can now contribute 50 votes.

Thus suppose one candidate receives 3 votes from the judges , and 40 votes from the audience ; this means that the other candidate received 2 votes from the judges and 60 from the audience ; the totals received by the two candidates are 30 + 40 vs. 20 + 60 i.e. 70 vs. 80 which means the second candidate won.

Now to your measure in cell F4 ; this is not the way percentages should be averaged. Taking the average of a series of percentages is never done , since a percentage is always on a base of 100. The individual percentage values may or may not be on a base of 100.

Suppose a student appeared in 2 tests ; in the first he got 90 out of 100 , while in the second he got 10 out of 10. Thus taking a straightforward average of the percentages will result in an overall percentage of 95 % ( 90 % + 100 % will equal 190 , divided by 2 will equal 95 ). However , this will not be a correct representation of the overall result , since the second test had a maximum marks of just 10 , compared to the 100 which the first test had. The correct overall result would be to add the marks obtained in the 2 tests , and divide this by the addition of the maximum marks in the 2 tests , thus giving ( 90 + 10 ) divided by ( 100 + 10 ) , which will give 100/110 or approximately 91 %. Whether this can be called the weighted average or not is a different matter altogether , but the fact is that as a composite measure of performance , it gives a better representation than 95 %.

Narayan
 
Q1. Moving Average is G4 67.26%
Q2. F4 is the Average of Averages, Mostly this figure is meaningless as we aren't sure about the hours or volumes of work used in each period.
Q3. For a weighted average you need a useage component of the resource/service
Your data is purely a percentage (Completed/Total )
Doing more jobs won't change the ratio, it may but we don't have data to support that

If however we talk about Cows
Cow type A can deliver 50 l/day
Cow type B can deliver 20 l/day
Cow type C can deliver 10 l/day

If you have more or of Type A cows your average l/day will be higher
That is the average l/day per cow is affected by the supply/use of the Quantity of the type of Cow present

The figures you have provided us don't tell us what makes up your completion and so you are only measuring the results, not the inputs.
 
Hi Santhosh ,

I think there is some confusion over here. The terms moving average and weighted average refer to 2 totally different concepts.

Moving average is always over a period of time ; the term moving implies that the window of time which is used to average the values keeps moving ; thus you can have a 12 month average over the period Jan , Feb , Mar ,..., Nov , Dec. This is not a moving average , since it is an average over 12 months. With the same 12 months of data , you can have a moving average with a window of 3 months ; in this case , you will have the following averages :

1. Jan , Feb , Mar
2. Feb , Mar , Apr
3. Mar , Apr , May
.
.
.
10. Oct , Nov , Dec

Thus , with the same 12 months of data , you can have 10 averages.

If you now change the window to 4 months , you will have 9 averages.

Weighted average is in no way connected with time ; it is connected with the relationship between 2 or more values , where some values are more important or weighty than others. A straightforward example is when the winner of a competition is decided using votes from judges as well as votes from an audience ; suppose the number of judges is 5 while the audience numbers 100.

If each vote of a judge carries the same weightage as the vote of a member of the audience , then effectively the judges will be outnumbered by the audience , since they can at the most pitch in with 5 votes.

Now , suppose a weightage of 10 is given to each judge's vote ; effectively , the 5 judges can now contribute 50 votes.

Thus suppose one candidate receives 3 votes from the judges , and 40 votes from the audience ; this means that the other candidate received 2 votes from the judges and 60 from the audience ; the totals received by the two candidates are 30 + 40 vs. 20 + 60 i.e. 70 vs. 80 which means the second candidate won.

Now to your measure in cell F4 ; this is not the way percentages should be averaged. Taking the average of a series of percentages is never done , since a percentage is always on a base of 100. The individual percentage values may or may not be on a base of 100.

Suppose a student appeared in 2 tests ; in the first he got 90 out of 100 , while in the second he got 10 out of 10. Thus taking a straightforward average of the percentages will result in an overall percentage of 95 % ( 90 % + 100 % will equal 190 , divided by 2 will equal 95 ). However , this will not be a correct representation of the overall result , since the second test had a maximum marks of just 10 , compared to the 100 which the first test had. The correct overall result would be to add the marks obtained in the 2 tests , and divide this by the addition of the maximum marks in the 2 tests , thus giving ( 90 + 10 ) divided by ( 100 + 10 ) , which will give 100/110 or approximately 91 %. Whether this can be called the weighted average or not is a different matter altogether , but the fact is that as a composite measure of performance , it gives a better representation than 95 %.

Narayan

Many Thanks. Very clear explanation.
 
Q1. Moving Average is G4 67.26%
Q2. F4 is the Average of Averages, Mostly this figure is meaningless as we aren't sure about the hours or volumes of work used in each period.
Q3. For a weighted average you need a useage component of the resource/service
Your data is purely a percentage (Completed/Total )
Doing more jobs won't change the ratio, it may but we don't have data to support that

If however we talk about Cows
Cow type A can deliver 50 l/day
Cow type B can deliver 20 l/day
Cow type C can deliver 10 l/day

If you have more or of Type A cows your average l/day will be higher
That is the average l/day per cow is affected by the supply/use of the Quantity of the type of Cow present

The figures you have provided us don't tell us what makes up your completion and so you are only measuring the results, not the inputs.

Many Thanks. Very clear explanation.
 
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